SHFE tin prices opened high and held steady overnight, spot market transactions were suppressed and temporarily halted [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 10, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened high at 289,500 yuan/mt in the night session, maintaining a high-level sideways trend overall, and closed at 287,400 yuan/mt, up 0.82% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to The Wall Street Journal, informed sources stated that the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia are making progress on an agreement that would allow US chip companies to export semiconductors to the Gulf state, and the deal may be finalised soon. Discussions on the agreement have been ongoing since May, when Trump touted chip deals involving Nvidia and AMD with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These chips, intended for data centers training artificial intelligence models, are a core part of the Trump administration's plan to export US technology globally. Progress has also been made recently on the deal with the UAE, with the US government agreeing to provide some Nvidia chips after the UAE finalised plans to invest in the US. (2) Preliminary results from International Data Corporation (IDC) showed that the global traditional PC market, including desktops, notebooks, and workstations, demonstrated continued vitality and accelerated growth in Q3 2025: total shipments reached 75.9 million units, a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year (69.3 million units). Lenovo Group maintained its position as the global PC market share leader, with PC shipments reaching 19.4 million units in Q3 2025, capturing a 25.5% market share. (3) US Fed – ① Williams: Supports further interest rate cuts, and the labour market could slow down further. ② Barr: Interest rate cuts should be approached cautiously, as current rates are mildly restrictive. ③ Kashkari: Basically agrees with everything Barr said.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major producing regions like Yunnan, and some smelters are maintaining production halts for maintenance in October (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchases are relatively cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations are driving some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Following the post-National Day price catch-up for SHFE tin, overall prices surged significantly, suppressing spot transactions. The vast majority of downstream enterprises have adopted a wait-and-see attitude, suspending purchase activities. Most traders reported no transactions or only small, rigid-demand transactions yesterday.

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